Markets
Luke Kawa
3/14/25

Stocks surge by most since day after US election

Well, I guess we can call it an uncorrection, for now.

The S&P 500 closed 10% below its all-time high with a rip-roaring 2.1% gain, its best day since November 6, when investors enthusiastically greeted President Trump’s election victory. The Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 did even better, closing up 2.5%.

However, it was still the fourth straight negative week for the benchmark US stock index, which hasn’t happened since August.

Every S&P 500 sector ETF finished higher on Friday, and most by more than 1%. Healthcare and consumer staples were the laggards, while tech was up 3% and energy, financials, and consumer discretionary were up 2% or more.

Ulta Beauty was the best performer on the S&P 500 after greatly exceeding earnings expectations.

Momentum stocks were back on the menu. Nvidia surged as Hon Hai (Foxconn) suggested that its AI server business could soon generate more revenues than its consumer electronics division. Super Micro Computer and Palantir were also among the biggest gainers.

Quantum computing stocks mooned after D-Wave Quantum reported massive bookings in the fourth quarter, a green shoot for commercialization prospects in the space.

Peloton climbed after Cannacord upgraded the stock from hold to buy, seeing sufficient upside after recent declines.

Kering, owner of Gucci (among others), slumped after tapping Demna Gvasalia as its creative director, a controversial hire that has not been well received by the market.

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US stocks slump into the weekend on turmoil with tariffs and tech

Friday was the same as Thursday — only worse.

Stocks tumbled and dip buyers were nowhere to be found, with the lowest share of up volumes across the New York Stock Exchange of this year. The S&P 500 fell just shy of 2%, the Russell 2000 was down 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 ended off 2.6%.

The pummeling of megacap tech stocks and tariff-sensitive companies was in focus to end the week. Consumer discretionary, communication services, tech, and industrials were the worst-performing S&P 500 sector ETFs, all down more than 2%.

Credit spreads also hit their widest levels of the year, signaling enhanced fear about a US economic slowdown.

Tesla tumbled as the analyst community warned the electric vehicle maker isn’t immune from tariffs and ahead of Q1 delivery results next week that are expected to be weak.

A fresh push from the US Department of Defense to cut software costs weighed on shares of Palantir.

Crypto-linked stocks like Strategy, Coinbase, and Robinhood sank along with bitcoin in the broad-based risk retreat.

(Robinhood Markets Inc. is the parent company of Sherwood Media, an independently operated media company.)

Lululemon had its worst day in more than a year after issuing a weak full-year sales forecast.

Ubisoft’s plans to spin off some of its major franchises were initially greeted warmly by investors before the stock got caught up in the sell-off and was shellacked.

Airlines continued their retreat, with Delta, Southwest, American Airlines, and United shedding about $5 billion in value this week.

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Credit market alarm bells signal the stock market’s in “growth scare” mode

How can you tell when a stock market sell-off is getting really worrisome?

Well, in our view, it’s when the credit market starts to go a little pear-shaped.

That’s what’s happening now. Even with today’s 2% decline in the S&P 500, the benchmark US stock index is still above its lows of the year. On the other hand, high yield credit spreads — a measure of how risky junk bonds are compared to US Treasuries — are at their wides of the year.

Back in late February, the seeming complacency of high-yield spreads amid the stock market’s tumble was a signal that so far, the downdraft in stocks was more a function of a momentum unwind than a reflection of a sharp deterioration in the US growth outlook.

Now, tariffs are darkening the already dimming backdrop for economic activity and their imprint is much more visible in credit and stocks, with tariff-sensitive stocks underperforming on the day and this week, and the likes of General Motors getting crushed. Even with the tech heavyweights leading the way down on Friday, it seems clear we’re now in growth scare mode.

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Why Palantir is falling

Palantir tumbled in early trading Friday, putting the vendor of defense, data analysis, and AI integration software on track for its fourth straight negative session.

Some of the slump may stem from fresh news of budgetary axe-swinging at the Department of Defense, a key Palantir client. Bloomberg reported that the DOD said it would terminate plans to use Oracle HR software, citing delays and cost overruns. (News of DOD budget cuts have hit Palantir shares before.)

Of course, a big part of Palantir’s tumble is simply a function of it being a more volatile stock than others in the midst of a broad market downdraft. On average, shares have been 2.8x as volatile as the S&P 500 on a daily basis over the past two years, so a significant chunk of today’s decline is linked to the benchmark index’s brisk retreat.

Of course, a big part of Palantir’s tumble is simply a function of it being a more volatile stock than others in the midst of a broad market downdraft. On average, shares have been 2.8x as volatile as the S&P 500 on a daily basis over the past two years, so a significant chunk of today’s decline is linked to the benchmark index’s brisk retreat.

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