Markets
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Luke Kawa
3/13/25

Cars out, tanks in: Rheinmetall is now worth more than Volkswagen

There’s a changing of the guard in the German stock market.

The market value of Rheinmetall AG has surpassed that of Volkswagen, putting the defense company among the 10 largest stocks in Germany’s benchmark DAX Index.

The carmaker has been floundering amid intense competition from Chinese EV-making rivals. Meanwhile, Rheinmetall is seemingly the prime beneficiary of Germany’s decision to pursue a massive defense spending package, which may be passed this week.

It’s very poetic that Rheinmetall’s ascension over Volkswagen is coming at the precise time that it is also considering taking over some of Volkswagen’s operations. CEO Armin Papperger suggested that the EV company’s factory in Osnabrueck (which Volkwagen is considering selling) is an attractive site to be converted into a tank-producing plant.

That’s probably music to the ears of German politicians, as reframing “rearmament” as “reindustrialization” is a part of the sales pitch for defense spending.

“Defence plans are likely to increasingly be sold domestically to voters as a pathway to the reindustrialization of Europe,” Signum Global Advisors Senior Europe Analyst Nico Fitzroy wrote. “European countries suffering most deeply from the downturn in the auto sector (set to worsen with likely upcoming US tariffs), are already looking to shift spare capacity from car manufacturing into the defence sector.”

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Intel China

Intel dives on China risk, downbeat analyst view on TSMC deal

So much for one of the few bright spots in Thursday’s market collapse.

China Trade

Stocks swoon on a costly economic divorce between the US and China

China’s announced a 34% retaliatory tariff on the US, sending both US-traded Chinese ADRs and US stocks exposed to China sharply lower.

markets

The S&P 500 has erased more market value than it did during the global financial crisis

Just how much market value has been lost during the momentum-driven downturn and tariff upheaval in US stocks?

Well, with the S&P 500 down 5.1% in early trading, that figure has swelled to a staggering $9 trillion for the benchmark US stock index — a drop in market cap that’s larger than what took place during the bear market that accompanied the global financial crisis of 2008.

The good news is that this isn’t quite an apples-to-apples comparison: Corporate America is much more profitable now than it was on the dawn of the global financial crisis, so the starting point of $54 trillion and change this year is much higher than the $14 trillion in mid-2007.

Nevertheless, that’s a mammoth loss that’s taken place in a very short time frame.

markets

Retail traders made their biggest buys of US stocks in a decade during the S&P 500’s worst day since 2020

The US stock market’s worst day since June 2020 was, in the eyes of retail traders, the biggest buying opportunity in at least 10 years.

“Despite a sea of red, retail investors stood firm and not only bought the dip but did so at a historic pace,” wrote JPMorgan analysts led by Emma Wu. “They ended today [Thursday] with +$4.7 billion of net buying, the largest level over the past decade.”

When it comes to what they’re buying, the retail crowd is largely continuing to dance with the ones that brought them.

“Their preference for the Mag 7 continued though Tesla was the only company sold of the set,” they added.

Nvidia and Amazon were the most preferred picks, with more than $400 million in net buys, respectively.

The analysts observed that this type of behavior is very different to how retail reacted to the Covid-induced shock. Not only was retail more willing to buy this time, but they were willing to express conviction in single stocks:

“Although the market has undergone its worst 1D performance in five years, the response by Retail investors stood in stark contrast to the 2020 COVID sell-off. At that time, they largely exacerbated the existing institutional selling, with ~75% correlation between market performance and their subsequent flows. Even on days they did decide to step in, they did not have the confidence to pick stocks but instead opted for more diversified ETF exposure, leading to a high ETF-to-singles ratio.”

Retail buying
Source: JPMorgan
markets

Reassuring US job growth provides a small comfort blanket for traders fretting over tariffs

We have no clue how much pain tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and counter-retaliatory tariffs are going to inflict on the US economy going forward.

But one thing we have learned is that the American labor market wasn’t completely falling apart ahead of the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. US nonfarm payrolls grew by 228,000 in March, massively exceeding economists’ expectations for 140,000. It wasn’t an unambiguously positive report, though, as the unemployment rate inched up to 4.2%.

The SPDR S&P 500 Trust caught a bit of a bid following this release, and is trading in tandem with two-year US Treasury yields. Both are still lower on the session, but well off their lows of the day. The reassuring jobs data isn’t moving too much for markets, probably a signal of how little the past matters in light of the upheaval in global cross-border commerce.

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